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'<p style="text-align: center; ">
<img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/150917/3-15091G1010O36.jpg" /></p>
<p>
據新加坡《聯合早報》9月16日報道，全球最大咖啡供應國巴西的評級被下調，造成咖啡價格也滑落至新低水平。但新加坡咖啡業者以美元進貨，在新元兌美元走低的環境裏，咖啡豆成本沒有明顯降低。</p>
<p>
國際信用評級公司標準普爾(Standard and Poor’s)上週將巴西的債信降爲“垃圾”級別，使到巴西貨幣里亞爾兌美元的匯率貶到13年新低。</p>
<p>
這也進而導致羅布斯塔咖啡豆(Robusta coffee)上週五跌至兩年低谷，報每公噸1544美元，同比下跌約兩成。阿拉比卡咖啡豆(Arabica coffee)則跌到每磅1.16美元的一年半新低。不過，咖啡價格近日稍有回彈。</p>
<p>
但新加坡咖啡業者並沒有因爲咖啡豆價格下跌而顯著受益。Coffee Nowhere在新加坡擁有三家咖啡館，老闆洪偉勝直接從南美洲進口咖啡豆，烘焙研磨後除了供自家使用，也批發給其他咖啡館。他認爲，目前巴西咖啡豆的價格是比去年初低許多，但新加坡業者獲益不大。</p>
<p>
洪偉勝受訪時說：“巴西的咖啡豆去年年初至年中因爲產量劇減，所以價格起了30%，直到去年底產量回升後，價格才下跌20%左右。”</p>
<p>
此外，由於巴西生產商是以美元報價，目前美元走強，所以洪偉勝認爲新加坡進口商的成本並沒有減少太多。</p>
<p>
批發咖啡豆和咖啡粉給咖啡店的南洋咖啡粉廠負責人陳伯豪也透露，進口商表示美元強勁，所以他上星期剛向進口商買貨的價格也起了一些，完全沒有調低的跡象。去年巴西乾旱時，價格倒是有調高。</p>
<p>
新加坡業者主要成本是租金和人工</p>
<p>
咖啡的零售價格預料也不會下調。洪偉勝解釋說：“一杯咖啡所需的咖啡豆只是20克左右，所以咖啡豆的價格起落不會影響成本太多，其他的成本其實更高，尤其是租金和人工。除非咖啡豆的成本下調超過50%，零售價纔可能調整。”</p>
<p>
羅布斯塔與阿拉比卡是全球交易最大的兩類咖啡豆商品，前者以質感爲重，味道較苦，多用於即溶咖啡。新加坡傳統咖啡店，多采用這類咖啡豆。後者則以香氣爲重，素質較高，但價格也較貴，優質咖啡店一般使用這類咖啡豆。</p>
<p>
德國商業銀行(Commerzbank)分析師富利奇(Carsten Fritsch)說：“巴西貨幣里亞爾持續貶值，是咖啡價格下跌的主因。特別是標準普爾將巴西債信降到垃圾級之後，巴西貨幣里亞爾就跌至2002年10月以來最低點。”</p>
<p>
路透社商品及能源市場分析師王濤表示，阿拉比卡咖啡價格可能跌破每磅1.1570美元的支撐點，跌勢可能延伸至每磅1.0450美元的水平。</p>
<p>
Seery Futures分析師希瑞(Michael Seery)也表示，咖啡主要供應國如巴西和哥倫比亞，目前都面對咖啡豆豐收、庫存充裕且貨幣疲軟等不利因素，都使到咖啡價格短期內難以找到刺激咖啡價格上升的催化劑。</p>
<p>
但他也提醒說，如果厄爾尼諾現象加劇，可能會影響咖啡的收成，從而使到咖啡供應減少，價格上揚。</p>
<p>
荷蘭合作銀行國際(Rabobank International)商品分析師阿塞諾(Carlos Mera Arzeno)則表示，當前咖啡的低價格，可能刺激購買，造成咖啡價格波動。</p>
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