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'<p style="text-align: center; ">
<img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/150908/3-150ZQ54215556.jpg" /></p>
<p>
咖啡豆空頭投資者可能會從新興市場國家貨幣貶值中獲益。</p>
<p>
由於經濟停滯和油價崩盤，全球最大的阿拉比卡咖啡(Arabica coffee)供應國巴西和哥倫比亞的貨幣都已經貶值，其中巴西雷亞爾今年以來已經貶值了25%。在過去6個月中，巴西雷亞爾和哥倫比亞比索兌美元匯率貶值幅度爲新興市場貨幣中最大。</p>
<p>
拉美貨幣貶值刺激咖啡豆出口，使得全球咖啡豆的供給增加。根據供需關係，咖啡豆價格也會因此承壓。</p>
<p>
據Rio de Janeiro-based brokerage Flavour Coffee數據，巴西8月份出口較去年同期的270萬包增加30萬包，至300萬包，連續三個月增加。一包咖啡豆價格重60千克。據路透此前報道，阿拉比卡咖啡期貨連跌第五日，觸及一年半低位。</p>
<p>
美國貨幣管理者對咖啡的看空情緒也升至去年7月份來最高，這歸因於咖啡豆價格連續三週下跌，創自3月份來最長時間。</p>
<p>
據美國期貨交易委員會(CFTC)最新公佈的數據顯示，截止到9月1日，對沖基金持有的咖啡豆期貨和期權淨空頭頭寸達到18392張。自2月份以來，貨幣管理者幾乎每週都在看空咖啡豆價格。</p>
<p>
Itau Unibanco Holding SA經濟學家和商品分析師Artur Manoel Passos對彭博社稱：“當地咖啡樹種植戶完全有理由增加出口。新興市場國家貨幣貶值可能會在明年二季度的時候給咖啡價格造成影響。”據彭博社編制的排名，Passos是二季度對咖啡豆價格預測最準確的分析師。</p>
<p>
即使在貨幣貶值鼓勵生產商拋售的情況下，巴西咖啡樹種植也正慢慢從2014年的大旱中恢復過了。與此同時，咖啡豆的需求也在攀升。</p>
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