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'<p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 15px; text-indent: 2em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋體; font-size: 14px;">
<img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/170623/3-1F623145406163.jpg" style="width: 500px; height: 350px;" /><br />
<span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 微軟雅黑, 黑體, Arial;">專業咖啡師交流 請關注咖啡工房(微信公衆號cafe_style )</span><br />
<br />
以下是我的一點總結猜想。</p>
<p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 15px; text-indent: 2em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋體; font-size: 14px;">
而我認爲，這不僅僅侷限於咖啡。</p>
<p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 15px; text-indent: 2em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋體; font-size: 14px;">
說說高考</p>
<p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 15px; text-indent: 2em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋體; font-size: 14px;">
2000年，高考人數是375萬人，此後每年以五六十萬人數遞增。</p>
<p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 15px; text-indent: 2em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋體; font-size: 14px;">
2008年，我高考的那一年，全國高考人數是有史以來最高的，達到了1050萬人，然後又逐年回落。</p>
<p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 15px; text-indent: 2em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋體; font-size: 14px;">
2010年後，近十年間，高考人數穩定在930萬人上下。</p>
<p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 15px; text-indent: 2em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋體; font-size: 14px;">
巧合的是，自從2000年以來，國家的房價就一直飆漲。</p>
<p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 15px; text-indent: 2em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋體; font-size: 14px;">
開一下腦洞，房價的飆升，跟中國備受關注的一代人——“80後”“獨生子女的一代”有沒有關係？</p>
<p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 15px; text-indent: 2em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋體; font-size: 14px;">
2000年開始，80後逐漸進入社會。從數據上看，步入社會的人數在未來十年，每年以近百萬的數量遞增。交通的便利，生活條件的抉擇，很多年輕人更願意湧向大城市。這應該也是促進房價上升的因素之一。</p>
<p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 15px; text-indent: 2em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋體; font-size: 14px;">
當然，我不是經濟學家，沒有很多的數據證明以上的因果關係。但歷史上，確實有這樣的事件。</p>
<p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 15px; text-indent: 2em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋體; font-size: 14px;">
“嬰兒潮”</p>
<p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 15px; text-indent: 2em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋體; font-size: 14px;">
二戰後，世界各國休養生息，世界人口總量迅速上升。在1949年到1964年，美國共有七千五百九十多萬嬰兒出生，約佔美國目前總人口的三分之一，這被稱爲“嬰兒潮”。</p>
<p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 15px; text-indent: 2em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋體; font-size: 14px;">
假如在1949年創立一個做嬰兒用品的產業，意味着在未來15年，每年都有大量的新生兒，這無疑是個巨大的市場。</p>
<p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 15px; text-indent: 2em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋體; font-size: 14px;">
說回咖啡</p>
<p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 15px; text-indent: 2em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋體; font-size: 14px;">
咖啡在中國是一個沒有消費基礎的飲品，就可瞭解的實際數據來看，靠咖啡銷售量支撐起的實體經營寥寥無幾。</p>
<p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 15px; text-indent: 2em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋體; font-size: 14px;">
客觀來講，咖啡的客羣仍然是有階層羣體侷限的，換句話說，讓環衛工人、工廠工人成爲忠實咖啡消費者的可能性極低。城市的白領和文藝創作者，是最大的咖啡客羣。</p>
<p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 15px; text-indent: 2em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋體; font-size: 14px;">
而在我的客羣中，有一類爲20歲出頭的年輕人，更多是大學生。這個羣體習慣去咖啡館工作和交際，而且對新鮮事物的好奇心和接受度都極高，更有利於對他們傳播我們對咖啡味道的定義。</p>
<p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 15px; text-indent: 2em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋體; font-size: 14px;">
如果說星巴克和雀巢改變的是75後的一羣人。那麼95後，應該是精品咖啡可以着力的市場。</p>
<p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 15px; text-indent: 2em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋體; font-size: 14px;">
所以，把今天的結論連起來可以得到這樣的推斷：</p>
<p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 15px; text-indent: 2em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋體; font-size: 14px;">
我們的粉絲羣體時間窗口大約是20歲，更準確來說應該是大學生羣體。</p>
<p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 15px; text-indent: 2em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋體; font-size: 14px;">
當他們畢業後，將成爲社會的新生力。</p>
<p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 15px; text-indent: 2em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋體; font-size: 14px;">
而在未來的十多年內，因爲人數數量巨大，如同“嬰兒潮”。</p>
<p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 15px; text-indent: 2em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋體; font-size: 14px;">
專欄作者：京sir</p>
<p style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 15px; text-indent: 2em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 宋體; font-size: 14px;">
簡介：你可以不喜歡咖啡，但別嘲笑爲它瘋狂的人</p>
' |
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